SMM Analysis：On December 25, SMM recorded the guidance price for domestic zinc concentrate TCs in January 2026 at 1,200–1,600 yuan/mt in metal content, with an average price of 1,400 yuan/mt, down 600 yuan/mt MoM. Throughout the year, domestic zinc concentrate TCs rose first and then fell. In Q4, domestic zinc concentrate TCs largely repeated last year's pattern, with domestic zinc concentrate TCs seemingly set to return to historically low levels. However, recently, sentiment in the domestic zinc concentrate market has shown signs of warming up. Why is this......

Since Q4, China’s petroleum coke market supply side has shown a two-way divergence characterized by accelerated domestic capacity release and shrinking import supply. The supply-demand pattern is undergoing periodic adjustments. Domestically, refinery maintenance pace slowed significantly in Q4, with a sharp drop in new maintenance plans, while production resumptions at previously idled refineries accelerated. Some long-term idled enterprises also gradually resumed production, leading to a continued rebound in domestic petroleum coke output and a gradually emerging incremental effect from local supply.Demand side, since December, downstream enterprises showed increasing fear of high prices and buying sentiment slowed, resulting in a marginal weakening of overall demand. Due to insufficient support from both supply and demand, domestic petroleum coke prices started a continuous downward trend. Port petroleum coke offers declined accordingly, and the pace of port spot cargoes shipments slowed noticeably. Against the backdrop of an overall weak domestic fundamental, petroleum coke imports in December are expected to continue declining.

Based on SMM calculations, full-year exports are expected to reach around 2.28 million mt, continuing the growth trend. Looking ahead to 2026, supported by demand growth driven by continued expansion of overseas aluminum capacity, SMM expects China's prebaked anode exports to maintain growth, with the export increase expected to exceed 7%, and total exports climbing to around 2.45 million mt.

[SMM Analysis]Cost and Demand Game Continues, Secondary Aluminum Prices to Hover at Highs in the Short Term

Iron ore futures fluctuated rangebound today, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 778.5, up 0.58% from the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell; steel mills purchased as needed.

Nickel prices, both domestic and overseas, generally fluctuated downward throughout 2025, with the price center shifting significantly lower. LME nickel prices fell from an opening of $15,365/mt at the start of the year to a low of $13,865/mt. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract dropped from 124,500 yuan/mt to a low of 111,700 yuan/mt, hitting a nearly five-year low. Based on the fundamentals of supply and demand, the center of nickel prices in 2026 may shift further downward. If Indonesia substantially tightens nickel ore supply, LME nickel prices may temporarily break through $16,000/mt, but the medium and long-term oversupply situation is unlikely to change, and the high inventory pressure may take a longer time to digest. 

Recently, NdFeB raw material prices for Pr-Nd oxide and Pr-Nd alloy experienced a rapid surge before entering a phase of fluctuation at highs. As of December 25, Pr-Nd oxide settled at 593,500 yuan/mt, up 19,500 yuan WoW; Pr-Nd alloy settled at 720,000 yuan/mt, up 22,500 yuan WoW. Despite the significant short-term increase in raw material prices, NdFeB product prices did not follow suit, with some magnetic material enterprises instead reducing prices for sales.

In November 2025, China's total phosphate ore imports decreased by 4.0% MoM to 192,000 mt, while the total import value fell by 1.5% MoM. The comprehensive national average import price rose by 2.6% MoM. China's phosphoric acid exports increased by 65.7% MoM to 48,000 mt, while the average export price continued to decline by 3.4% MoM to $969.8/mt. Imports by Thailand grew by 18.9% MoM, maintaining its position as the largest export destination for the month.